ACC Tournament Outlook Post (2/13)
Where will the Orange end up?
With 6 games remaining on the conference schedule and the conference tournament just under a month away, it feels appropriate to start taking a look at Syracuse’s ACC Tournament outlook.
In this post, I’ll take a quick look at remaining season projections, projected ACC standings, Syracuse’s potential finishes, and if the Orange really do have to worry about not making the 15-team ACC tournament.
Let’s dive in:
REMAINING SEASON PROJECTIONS
Syracuse is currently sitting at 11-14 (5-9).
Using KenPom, they are projected to finish 13-18 (7-13).
As you can see, half of the remaining games are projected to be close ones that could flip either way (NC State, at VT, UVA) and the other half are highly unlikely wins for the Orange (UNC, at Pitt, at SMU).
Here are what two other predictives say:
Haslam has them going winless down the stretch…which is…alarming. His model has only missed on 2 Syracuse games this year (beating Notre Dame and winning at Cal). They’d finish 11-20 (5-15 ACC) in his model. With that being said, he has NC State and UVA only as 1 point favorites in their matchups.
Torvik, like KenPom, also predicts Syracuse to finish 13-18 (7-13 ACC).
Based on these 3 models, the 2 games that seem most likely to have the greatest impact on Syracuse’s final regular season record are the home tilts with NC State and UVA.
Losing either of those two games could swing the record from 13-18 to 12-19/11-20 very easily. Losing to NC State would be most problematic.
Also of note, Syracuse would need to go 5-1 during this stretch to avoid a losing season.
KENPOM PROJECTED ACC STANDINGS
Here is what the final ACC Standings would look like if every game went according to KenPom.
Syracuse would be sitting in a tie with Florida State…but lose that tiebreaker since they lost the head-to-head matchup.
Just behind them are Notre Dame, Cal, and Virginia at 6-14.
KENPOM PROJECTED ACC TOURNAMENT
I don’t love this bracket as much as others I’ve seen the last few weeks, but…
Syracuse would open with a game against a team they have beaten once this year
They’d face a Wake Forest team that is solid but not overly scary (still doubt SU would get that win)
Then they’d have to face SMU…followed by Duke….which is obviously a very difficult path
ACC TOURNAMENT QUALIFICATION SCENARIOS
I’m not going to cover every single scenario because there are too many…but here are the most likely potential situations (PS - I’m pretty sure these are right but forgive me if I read something wrong):
SCENARIO 1: Syracuse does what KenPom predicts
The Orange would almost certainly be in good shape here unless all the other teams behind them finish very strong.
NC State would need to win a few games against UNC, Wake, GT, and Pitt to overtake Syracuse. This model predicts a Syracuse win over NC State.
SCENARIO 2: Syracuse does what KenPom predicts, but loses to NC State.
If everyone else does what they are supposed to, this moves Syracuse’s projected finish to 6-14. And it improves NC State’s projected finish to 5-15.
SCENARIO 3: Syracuse does what KenPom predicts, but loses to Virginia.
This would drop Syracuse to a projected 6-14 in the ACC and lock them in at the 15th and final seed.
SCENARIO 4: Syracuse does what KenPom predicts and beats Virginia Tech.
This could potentially bump Syracuse all the way up to the 10 seed.
SCENARIO 5: Syracuse does what Haslam predicts and doesn’t win a regular season game the rest of the way.
The Orange would finish 5-15 in the conference. NC State would finish 6-14. Syracuse would be out.
Syracuse’s path to securing a spot in the ACC Tournament is anything but certain, with the game against NC State standing out as the most pivotal matchup left on the schedule….especially if the Wolfpack win a game they “shouldn’t”.
While predictive models vary in their outlook, a strong finish could see the Orange climb to a more favorable position, while a losing skid could put them in serious jeopardy.
With just six games remaining, every game matters as Syracuse fights to stay in the mix.
See you on Saturday!