GAME #12 PREVIEW - Bucknell
The "easiest" game left on the schedule
THE BASICS
I’ll be honest - this one isn’t an exciting matchup. Which worries me because we’ve seen Syracuse play to their level of competition all season.
I’m interested to see which version of Syracuse shows up today for a 2pm Saturday tip off with no students on campus against a team they are supposed to beat rather easily…and coming off two rough losses.
Syracuse faces a struggling Bucknell team that has lost 6 straight games this afternoon.
The Orange have lost 6 of their last 8 games as well.
The Bison are a solid defensive team, but they are VERY bad on the offensive end (see below).
Also of note, this is the easiest part of Syracuse’s schedule for the remainder of the season - they are projected to win 5 of their next 7 games…and then to go 4-9 the rest of the way.
Let’s take a closer look.
ABOUT THE BISON
4 WINS: (221) Richmond, (240) Delaware, (325) Southern Indiana, (335) NJIT
8 LOSSES: (6) Gonzaga, (11) Maryland, (26) Kentucky, (80) St. Bonaventure, (235) Mount St. Mary’s, (287) Siena, (323) Rider
KENPOM RANKING: 259th
OFFENSIVE RANKING: 335th
DEFENSIVE RANKING: 148th
What are they good at (TOP 100 KENPOM)
63rd - Offensive FTA/FGA
That’s the only stat they are in the top-100 in (via KenPom). However, they do a decent job shooting from 2 (52.8% for 136th) and defending from 2 (49.6% for 138th).
What are they not good at?
353rd - Offensive FT%
335th - Offensive Efficiency
321st - Offensive Turnover %
303rd - Offensive Rebound %
294th - Offensive 3P%
These are the main culprits for the Bison. They do a decent amount of things poorly from an analytical standpoint, but these are the big ones.
As you can see, these are all on the offensive end. It’s difficult to win if you can’t make free throws, you turn the ball over, you don’t offensive rebounder, and you don’t shoot well from 3.
BASIC MATCHUP STATS
ADVANCED MATCHUP STATS
Key Stat Matchups
Bucknell turns it over a lot (321st in the country), but Syracuse doesn’t turn teams over (344th).
Bucknell doesn’t offensive rebound (303rd); Syracuse keeps teams off the offensive glass (23rd).
Both teams do a good job of getting to the foul line. Bucknell is 63rd in this category; Syracuse is 85th.
There’s just not much that is exciting about this matchup - let’s speak the truth here.
3 PIECES OF GOOD NEWS FOR SU
This is, by far, the easiest game left on the schedule from an analytical standpoint. Syracuse has an 88% chance to win. The next 3 easiest games outside of this one are BC at home (76%), Georgia Tech at home (64%), and UVA/Wake Forest at home (59%).
The Bucknell offense is bad and they turn it over. This could be a good game for the struggling Syracuse defense to get things going.
This is a game Syracuse should be fine to win without JJ Starling - as many of those as possible are great.
3 PIECES OF BAD NEWS FOR SU
It’s a Saturday 2pm tipoff game during winter break against a team you’re supposed to handle with ease after you’ve come off two back-to-back embarrassing losses over a 2 week span
Bucknell DOES defend at a decent rate. If Syracuse can’t score, any game will be difficult due to their lack of defense.
The Bison are battle tested at least - they’ve played Kentucky, Maryland, and Gonzaga this season.
BURNING QUESTIONS
Will Chris Bell finally get going?
Will Syracuse come with anything different after a week off? Or hold that out for Wake Forest? Or not?
Does Syracuse have the maturity/leadership to come ready to play in what will surely be a snoozer of a Saturday afternoon.
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A WIN?
The Orange move to .500 on the season and enter their easiest stretch of ACC play with a little momentum.
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOSS?
That would be…very bad.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Here are the next 5 games for Syracuse:
Tues, Dec 31 vs. (109) Wake Forest - 64% chance to win
Sat, Jan 4 at (65) Florida State - 27% chance to win
Tues, Jan 7 vs. (106) Georgia Tech - 63% chance to win
Sat, Jan 11 at (169) Boston College - 59% chance to win
Tues, Jan 14 vs. (50) Louisville - 38% chance to win
Keep the faith!
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