GAME #28 PREVIEW - NC State
The unexpected most important game of the year (so far)
THE BASICS
Syracuse hosts NC State in, as many of you are aware, a pivotal game for the remainder of Syracuse’s season and ACC Tournament qualification hopes.
The Orange come into this as 1.5 point favorites in Vegas. KenPom is projecting a 73-71 Syracuse win and giving them a 56% chance at victory.
The Wolfpack are coming off a big win vs. Wake Forest on Saturday.
While NC State has struggled all season, they only have one “bad” loss to Virginia Tech. Their record may be a little misleading.
They have had a number of close losses…and played some better teams closely:
Texas 59-63
UVA 67-70
UNC 61-63
VT 76-79
Cal 62-65
SMU 57-63
Stanford 73-74
Here are my main keys for tonight:
find a way to win the turnover battle
NC State doesn’t turn it over…and Syracuse doesn’t turn teams over
Syracuse turns it over…NC State is good at turning teams over
Syracuse MUST do a decent job in this area to win the game - expect more Jaquan Carlos against the NC State pressure
win on the glass
Syracuse has the advantaged here and can’t afford to give it up
right people taking the right shots from 3
Syracuse can’t waste possessions with the wrong guys shooting from 3
We’ll see which NC State shows up, but this will be a more high-pressure-than-normal regular season game featuring two of the lower ranked teams in the conference - should be fun!
Here is their condensed game from their big win against Wake Forest on Saturday:
ABOUT THE WOLFPACK
TOP 100 WINS: (69) Wake Forest, (87) Florida State, (92) Notre Dame
OTHER WINS: (174) Boston College, (209) William and Mary, (242) Presbyterian, (261) Colgate, (326) Coastal Carolina, (327) Rider, (335) USC Upstate, (361) Coppin State
LOSSES: (1) Duke, (17) Purdue, (20) Clemson, (21) Kansas, (25) Louisville, (28) BYU, (40) UNC 2X, (41) Texas, (43) SMU, (69) Wake Forest, (89) Stanford, (103) Virginia, (115) California 2X, (148) Virginia Tech
KENPOM RANKING: 107th
OFFENSIVE RANKING: 131st
CONFERENCE ONLY: 15th
DEFENSIVE RANKING: 113th
CONFERENCE ONLY: 13th
What are they good at (TOP 100 KENPOM)?
16th - Offensive Turnover %
78th - Defensive Turnoer %
What are they not good at?
321st - Defensive Rebound %
281st - Offensive EFG%
205th - Offensive Rebound %
BASIC MATCHUP STATS
ADVANCED MATCHUP STATS
Key Stat Matchups
NC State takes great care of the ball (16th); Syracuse doesn’t force turnovers (346th)
NC State isn’t a great offensive rebounding team (205th); Syracuse is good at defensive rebounding (40th)
NC State can’t shoot from 2 or 3 (under 260th in KenPom for each)…but Syracuse can’t defend from 2 or 3 (under 233rd for each)
Syracuse doesn’t take great care of the ball (208th); NC State turns teams over decently (78th)
Neither team can shoot from 3 - Syracuse is 268th (32.1%) and NC State is 237th (32.7%)
GOOD NEWS FOR SU
Syracuse holds a solid advantage on the glass - especially on the defensive end. NC State doesn’t get a lot of offensive rebounds.
NC State is not a lockdown defensive team. Typically, Syracuse has at least been in games at the end when teams aren’t better on the defensive end.
BAD NEWS FOR SU
Turnovers are worrisome. NC State turns teams over at a decent rate and Syracuse turns them over at a high rate….AND NC State takes care of the ball, but Syracuse doesn’t turn teams over.
NC State might be better than their record shows - they have close losses to Texas (4 points), UVA (3 points), UNC (2 points), VT (3 points), Cal (3 points), SMU (6 points), and Stanford (1 point).
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A WIN?
Syracuse puts themselves into a very good spot when it comes to ACC Tournament hopes with a win tonight. It doesn’t lock them in, but it gets them pretty close to being a sure thing to qualify.
It would bring their record to 12-16 (6-11) on the season.
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOSS?
If Syracuse loses, they are in serious jeopardy of potentially missing the ACC Tournament. A lot of that would have to do with how other teams finish (obviously), but it would put a lot more pressure on Syracuse to get wins over VT, SMU, or Virginia.
It would drop their record to 11-17 (5-12) on the season.
WHAT’S NEXT?
After tonight’s game, Syracuse hits the road for back-to-back road contests at Virginia Tech and SMU. Those will certainly be challenges, but the Orange have a decent chance to steal a win at Blacksburg.
Then they host a potentially huge game (in terms of ACC Tournament qualifications) with Virginia at home on senior night.
That’s all today - see you guys tonight!